Hmm. We'll see. Lots of competitors say they're going to kill the iPad, and they haven't yet!
My brother drug us into the Best Buy Mobile store in the mall tonight and, yep, still happy I picked the iPad!
Definitely. I don't think for a moment that it will hold a candle to the iPad, rather it will more likely enhance the experience of using Amazon.
Precisely. The "threat" noted in the Forrester commentary is typical of such hyping found in their (and others) market analysis. The notion that the Amazon Tablet (aka Kindle 4) will "kill" the iPad is simply silly.
Nevertheless, Amazon has an opportunity to make a serious play in the tablet market by broadening the concept. Barnes and Noble has already taken a step in that direction with the Nook Color ("The Tablet for Readers".)
Amazon is a very, very strong brand. Not as broad or deep as Apple but they'll ship 20-25 million Kindles in 2011 and that ain't hay. If they introduce a relatively low cost tablet ($250-$300. The Nook Color is $249.) with strong appeal to their customer base (who are already accustomed to paying premium prices for content) and additional functionality (web browsing, video, audio, email support, messaging, etc.) in a 7" form factor, they can make a killing.
I seriously doubt that they'll be dumb enough either to replace the low price Kindle or step up to be a direct competitor to the iPad. What they will do, I suspect, is to try to bury the Nook Color and provide a high quality reading experience in a form factor more suited to what their customers already like plus some of the most popular features of the iPad.
It will of course impact some of their Kindle sales, just as the iPad has sent iPod Touch sales into the toilet (down 20% since a year ago.) But those customers can be expected to buy books whether on a Kindle or the "Amazon Tablet." Furthermore, at a $300 price point, they'll eat into some of Apple's low end iPad sales.
In short, the error is thinking that purchasers of the Amazon product will look for the same features/functionality as iPad buyers. Those aren't the customers Amazon is looking for. Rather, they're after a market segment analogous to the folks who purchase iPads rather than laptops because they don't need or want all the functionality of the latter. In this case, Amazon is looking for those who don't need all the functionality of an iPad but do want the best possible media consumption (especially printed media) experience.
I wouldn't bet against them if that's their plan.
