What is failure or a product?

[Seadog]

I was reading a financial report that was evaluating the prospects of the iPad. They said that if the iPad did not sell at least 2 million by September, it would be a failure and may impact the reputation of Apple. Now the iPhone only sold 1.4M in the first two quarters, and 6M in the first year. So what is failure and success here? If they cannot sell 6M the first year, why would it be a failure?

 

[IpadOne]

Seadog , the media just talk about the Hot potatoes ... and as they have nothing to say yet they expect lot of possibility .... just let the naysayer talk in the wind la

 

[LMControl]

Care to post a link to this so called financial report? I've seen nothing like this reported in the media. Quite the contrary so far, considering the initial shipments and pre-orders have been sold out.

I doubt anyone's going to call it a failure if it doesn't sell a certain amount before September, especially before the holiday season. The 4th quarter has always gone a long way in defining the success or failure of Apple's products.

Despite the media's best attempts to throw doubt on the iPad, it appears the public are clamoring for it and once they get out in public, there will only be more excitement for this device.

 

[Finnedog]

Prediction

The iPad is going to be the #1 electronic gift at Christmas time.

 

[Seadog]

It was in the NY Times Financial. They were not being so much as being negative, but stating a what if. It is true that the reaction of the first adopters are going to be the best/worse advertising that Apple will get. Nobody is paying attention to the idiots like the one from PC Mag that declared the iPad the stupidest idea ever. The media pundits have shown theirselves to be lacking in vision. However, what does happen if a strong competitor, or issues keep sales down below prediction?

On a more positive note, Brightcove has announced that they will support HTML5 whenever a program detects a iPad, iPhone, or other device that does not support flash. And they are moving to replace flash within a few years.

 

[CanonicalKoi]

Seadog, is this the article? Analysts Ask if the iPad Can Live Up to Its Hype - NYTimes.com

I didn't see them saying that it would damage Apple's reputation, just affect stock prices (which may amount to the same thing. I never majored in business.) And I especially liked this quote: "Analysts acknowledge that a certain amount of guesswork goes into those projections, in part because it is not yet clear what kinds of applications and content will be available for the iPad from media companies and outside developers." Translation: "We're pulling wild guesses out of thin air, based on nothing, but trust us! We're professionals!"

 

[Seadog]

My thought about the article was not about any perceived negativity, but about how can they attribute a production number as the determination of success. The latest story out today is saying that one report has iPad production expected to be 10M during 2010, which another expert translates to at least 6M sales.

The truth is that until it is in the hands of the public and they look at the apps available and the uses they have for it, nobody knows. At the least, it will be niche player, and at best, it will be a have-to-have necessity. In either case, the iPad will be around for years. It took over a year for the iPod to take off, and almost 2 years for the iPhone to become more than just a cool cell phone. It will take time for app makers to come realize where the potential market is for the iPad. We may be in for a long list of business apps that were not practical on an iPhone and it is not viable to be using an Macbook. In a few generations, Apple may have a chip that is as powerful as today's laptops and the same battery life. If the iPad becomes big enough, it may spur SSD growth to see them with 1TB+ memory. It is almost guaranteed that the next generation will offer 128GB memory.

 

[DavidNM]

They're just trying to make news and stir crap up. I remember when LBJ commented to an aid about starting a rumor that one of his political rivals had sex with farm animals. The aid looked up in surprise and said "are you serious - do you have any proof that he sleeps with farm animals"? And LBJ said "nope - no proof - but I would like to see him deny it on TV".

 

[brobar]

If the iPad outsells the iPhone in it's first few quarters (or first year) then it is obviously a HUGE success. I wouldn't consider it a failure even if it came up short though... it just depends on HOW short. The iPhone (being a "phone") was a more justifiable purchase for many because everyone has or needs a phone to a degree. However the iPad is a totally new niche market where nobody "needs" it... it is more of a "want". People already have smartphones and people already have laptops and netbooks and there never really was much of a filler for the gap in between until now. So if an item people just want meets or beats the sales of an item that people justifiably needed... then how could it not be considered a major success?

 

[Seadog]

I have to disagree with the characteration of the iPad as a 'want' item. I think that many people do not recognize the business demand for such an item. Last week, my doctor was using a netbook to take notes with. The iPad would be much easier to deal with. In fact, a major medical support company is getting ready apps to do just that. The components are all there, they just need to be integrated. The nurse comes in and makes notes on her iPad which is wifi'd to the doctor's iPad and the office main system. The doctor comes in and looks at the test results, makes any prescriptions and notes. It goes to the nurse and front, the prescription is called in automaticaly, the bill is readied and everything is done very efficiently.

Now think of all the industries and businesses that will find a similar use for something like that. In my job, I will be able to be anywhere in the country and dial in to my computer system to check operation issues, or to give the personnel help on issues.

 

[CanonicalKoi]

True, an iPad would be better for hospitals and such. When my Dad was in his last hospital stay, they had a laptop or notebook computer in each room for tracking meds, vitals, etc. A unit that a doctor or nurse could carry around would be so much easier than each of them having to log in and out every time they wanted to check or update data. It'd be much easier to input it in a tablet, have it update the info in a central server and have it accessible to all the medical personnel.

 

[Jaseph]

It's quite simple. If Apple makes a profit from the Ipad it's a success. Of course if it is a slim profit, it would be considered a failure because of all the resources and time put into it. But it may take a couple of years to truly judge the Ipad.

I think the Ipad is going to be a huge success. Ipad owners will be providing Apple with a continual stream of income from the Apps Store, Ibooks store, and the Itunes store.

And the Ipad will most definitely sell more in its 2nd gen than the first. There are lots of people who never buy a first generation anything. They know a 2nd gen will most likely be cheaper, have more features and have any kinks worked out. So these people saying Apple has to sell 2 million by September have no idea what they are talking about.

 

[iVan]

True, an iPad would be better for hospitals and such. When my Dad was in his last hospital stay, they had a laptop or notebook computer in each room for tracking meds, vitals, etc. A unit that a doctor or nurse could carry around would be so much easier than each of them having to log in and out every time they wanted to check or update data. It'd be much easier to input it in a tablet, have it update the info in a central server and have it accessible to all the medical personnel.

True, iPads would be a great tool in hospitals but I doubt that they'd use them.

I'm just back home from a few disagreable days in hospital with a shattered ankle (seven fractures).
Most hospitals forbid the use of wifi and cellphones because they interfere with sensitive equipment. Adding a few hundred iPads in the mix could certainly wreak havock...

 

[Seadog]

Hospitals are getting away from banning cellphones and they use wifi all the time. It is hard to ban cell phones when every doctor and nurse has one. There are some areas that they are not allowed, but usually because of potential damage to a cell phone or computer.

 

[DavidNM]

iPads would not be feasible for in-hospital use at the present time - at least on a large scale. EMR software right now operates on a very thick client that requires XP pro or later OS with a spinning hard drive, etc.

Now, iPads, using software like eClinical, would be great for individual physician use - that's how I see them being used for now. Once a common interface with Windows based products is created (if) that may be a different story.