At CES 2012, all the experts interviewed agreed that the new iPad will be released this quarter. While Apple loves to be secretive, they almost always meet their annual cycles. The iPhone 4S exception may have been the result of the tsunami hitting Japan and forcing some hard decisions on Apple. I would say the only question is whether or not they introduce it on Steve Job's birthday.
What the concensus is at CES, is that there will be a 'retina display' and camera like the 4S has. It will be 1 mm thicker, which is driving some people crazy in that Apple rarely makes anything thicker if they can help it. There is some speculation that the lack of major features will cause it to be named the iPad 2S or iPad 2HD. It is also expected that the original iPad 2 will be offered at $399. There is strong logic behind this move and would be a way to introduce more buyers to the iPad. It would attract bargain hunters, but when they see the benefits of the newer models, many would decide to upgrade. The iPad and iPad2 have gained most of the adopters that are willing to spend $500+ on an iPad. Now they have to attract the bargain hunters to make further inroads. With their costs, they could sell them for $299 and still make money, so it is not going to hurt them. The only negative is if people do not buy a new iPad model because they are happly with the old model. That is marketing at work.