Do some serious trending. When I got mine in June, Apple was selling refurbished 16gb's for $375, and Craiglist and eBay were generally going for the same or higher for 16gb or 32gb's (16 to 32gb pricing could be rather arbitrary and interchangable).
I lucked out and bought when Verizon was blowing out their inventory for $200, $300, and $400 respectively for new in the box, and they went fast. Not sure if anyone has come close.
Food for thought... The iPad3 is due in February. You could wait and try to pounce on a similar Verizon deal. No contracts, by the way.