There Could be More than 58 Million iWatch Units Shipped in the Debut Year

[RaduTyrsina]

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Lately, the rumors, discussion and hearsay regarding Apple’s potential iWatch device seems to be heating up. We have reported that Apple has allegedly hired two new members to its iWatch team: a sleep and activity expert and a former expert in the field of pulse oximetry; and that Apple is testing inductive and solar charging methods for the upcoming smart watch. Now, it’s the analysts’ turn to estimate what impact will the iWatch have.

Assuming an ASP of $299 and Apple customer base penetration rate similar to the iPad, we see up to $17.5B of revenue in the first 12 months compared to $12B for the iPad and $2.5B for the iPhone. If there are supply bottlenecks in the first year, we see a more conservative revenue range from $10B (assuming iPhone penetration curve) to $14B (average of iPhone and iPad penetration curves). This translates into six to 10 points of revenue growth for Apple from iWatch in CY15.

Cited by the iWatchMag publication, Katy Huberty of Morgan Stanley says that the iWatch could generate amazing revenues of more than $17 billion in the first 12 months after getting launched for consumers. The analyst also says that the device would have a $299 price, which means that there will be more than 58 million iWatch units shipped in its first debut year.

If this will turn out to be true, then the iWatch will have outstripped the iPad and the iPhone’s first year sales combined, as the iPad brought in $12 billion and the iPhone $2.5 billion. The analyst says that the biggest reason for this potential success is the fact that current iPhone and iPad owners will be those targeted. So, she sees the iWatch as a natural accessory rather than as a fledgeling product category like the iPod and iPhone at their launch.

Source: iWatchMag (1) (2)

 

[Ser Aphim]

This could actually be better than the iPhone. Maybe......

 

[s2mikey]

This could actually be better than the iPhone. Maybe......

I don't see how. Guess I just never got on with these tiny devices. Phones are way too small to do anything useful on for me so this watch is even smaller! Geesh!

 

[The OB]

Could be very interesting depending on the features. But not for me if they are going to look like a girl's bracelet as shown. And there were people years ago laughing at Dick Tracy's watch!
Andrew


From OZ using Tapatalk Pro

 

[Ser Aphim]

I don't see how. Guess I just never got on with these tiny devices. Phones are way too small to do anything useful on for me so this watch is even smaller! Geesh!

I guess thats becuse its much more portable than a phone......

 

[AQ_OC]

It will be something new and hopefully useful. I have a pebble now and there are indeed times where I find it useful. The other day I got a call when my hands were full and my phone was in my pocket. I knew immediately who was calling and decided it would return the call later. Then came a text from that person that I could read on my wrist, without having to grab the phone. As long as the phone is within range, I know what I going on without having to grab the phone. At home, the phone can be either upstairs or downstairs and I know if I get a call, text, so some other notification. I find this useful and I don't have to feel like a slave to a phone. And I'm only lukewarm for this pebble. I hope an apple product will be even better.

 

[Len S. Fine]

I don't see how. Guess I just never got on with these tiny devices. Phones are way too small to do anything useful on for me so this watch is even smaller! Geesh!

I guess you have to get used to it. But How?

 

[twerppoet]

I don't see how. Guess I just never got on with these tiny devices. Phones are way too small to do anything useful on for me so this watch is even smaller! Geesh!

I suppose it's because I don't think of it as another device, or replacement for the iPhone. It's an extension of the iPhone. A doodad that makes some features of the phone more convenient. Basically, everything you've ever had to take your iPhone out of your pocket for, just to check on something or tap once or twice, can be done from the Apple Watch; or at least it has that potential.

You also get some light weight interaction and communication. If you get a message and the response is simple, like "ok, on my way" is enough. You're done in two taps.

You can see who is calling you without fishing the iPhone out of your pocket (or purse), and decide to take the call or dismiss it. Or respond with a 'call you back later' message if busy.

It's a good health tracker, if you wanted a health tracker. I need something, or I don't stay motivated. Tracking progress (or more importantly the lack of it) is my kick in the seat.

Eventually you'll get other apps, for light weight data entry say. Anything you want to track from meals and expenses to whether you took your pills. If it normally takes only one or two taps on an iPhone, why should you have to dig out your iPhone.

I want one because I can already visualize how I will use it. I saw it. I saw what it could do, and could potentially become, and I have a solid idea of how it 'should' fit into my life. The same was true for the iPod Touch, the iPad, and iPhone.

That said, if none of these things interest you, or even if only one of them interests you, then the Apple Watch is probably not for you. Not yet. Who knows what the next version will bring.