Analyst Predicts Impressive Holiday Results for Apple

[Maura]

AppleInsider reports today that Wall Street analyst Rob Cihra, from Evercore Partners, has today updated his projections for Apple’s quarterly earnings report, which is due to be announced on January 23. In his latest report, Cihra says that he thinks that Apple will report sales of 50 million iPhones for the holiday quarter, which would represent a 35% increase on the same period a year ago, and 86% growth from the previous quarter. As far as the iPad is concerned, Cihra says that he thinks that Apple sold 24 million iPads in the quarter, which would see a 56% growth year on year, and a 71% growth spurt from the previous quarter. Cihra makes particular note of the dynamic sales achievement of the iPad mini, which he says will have made up 10 million of Apple’s overall iPad sales figures. Cihra goes on to say that the iPad mini had a “booming launchâ€, and that Apple still cannot make them quick enough to satisfy customer demand.


[FONT=&amp]Source: [/FONT]50M iPhone sales, 'booming' iPad mini expected in Apple's holiday quarter

 

[AQ_OC]

These reports of booming sales seem somewhat at odds with the sagging stock prices and the dire predictions that Apple is losing its way....and that "what are they going to do next" feeling that leaves one to wonder if the magic is gone....

 

[KevinJS]

These reports of booming sales seem somewhat at odds with the sagging stock prices and the dire predictions that Apple is losing its way....and that "what are they going to do next" feeling that leaves one to wonder if the magic is gone....

You highlight a couple of points I've never been able to understand. The level of innovation clearly visible from Apple doesn't indicate any "losing their way", yet you would think that the company is just about on it's last legs if you listen to some reports. I'm reminded of the non-event of 21-12. And the tumbling stock price makes me wonder what is going on, when Apple can sell every unit they can produce.

I think it's clear that these two indicators, while they are indicators of SOMETHING, have no relationship to the overall strength of the company.

I don't get it.

 

[AdmiralAdama]

Apple's stock price move lower was influenced by many things.

- Profit taking after the share price reached a record.

- Speculation that the "mini" would squeeze Apple's juicy profit margins.

- Higher tax rates in 2013 for capital gains made tax-related selling more appealing than usual.

AA

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[KevinJS]

Thanks for that, AA. That explains one part of it very well.


Any thoughts on why the new iMac, the MBP w/ Retina Display, the iPads and iPhones, AppleTV etc are heading the way of the dinosaur (apparently).

 

[AQ_OC]

Any thoughts on why the new iMac, the MBP w/ Retina Display, the iPads and iPhones, AppleTV etc are heading the way of the dinosaur (apparently).

Yes, answer that one, please.

 

[HardMetalAlchemy]

If anything, I'd say the iPod touch is heading towards ''extinction''.

 

[AdmiralAdama]

Thanks for that, AA. That explains one part of it very well.

Any thoughts on why the new iMac, the MBP w/ Retina Display, the iPads and iPhones, AppleTV etc are heading the way of the dinosaur (apparently).

I think this Forbes article sheds some light on that scenario. It was written in April but the arguments both analysts use to support their coverage of Apple still hold up.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/haydnshaughnessy/2012/04/09/apples-demise-what-is-that-about/

I agree with some of what they say but I also agree with comments in this thread about "innovation" being the mother-of-all game changers.

AA

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[KevinJS]

I think this Forbes article sheds some light on that scenario. It was written in April but the arguments both analysts use to support their coverage of Apple still hold up.

Apple's Demise: What is That About? - Forbes

I agree with some of what they say but I also agree with comments in this thread about "innovation" being the mother-of-all game changers.

AA

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Certainly makes interesting reading, but I think they underestimate Apple's influence in "emerging" markets. There is a news story right here that claims the Chinese hunger for iPad minis is "insatiable".

One thing few other companies have in hi-tech is a perception that their products are somehow worth more when they contain pretty much the same parts as everyone else's. Apple has this down to a fine art. Even kids see value in the Apple name, and it won't be many years before today's iPod touch users are the movers and shakers in industry and commerce.

 

[AdmiralAdama]

Certainly makes interesting reading, but I think they underestimate Apple's influence in "emerging" markets. There is a news story right here that claims the Chinese hunger for iPad minis is "insatiable".

One thing few other companies have in hi-tech is a perception that their products are somehow worth more when they contain pretty much the same parts as everyone else's. Apple has this down to a fine art. Even kids see value in the Apple name, and it won't be many years before today's iPod touch users are the movers and shakers in industry and commerce.

Thing is with the exception of China, Apple has been ignoring emerging markets. India, Indonesia, Brazil, are crucial emerging economies. But iOS products remain out of reach of most consumers.

The iPhone is double - even triple the retail price - in developed countries because they're scarce and, the telcos don't offer subsidies. Certainly nothing comparable to what's available in North America and Europe.

Apple's market (smartphone) share in India I believe, is below 5%. Samsung's market share is above 20%.

In Indonesia, the iPhone has a 1 percent market share. RIM is 40%.

In Brazil 10 percent of smartphone subscribers own an iOS device but Apple is still acres behind RIM and Nokia.

One wildcard for Apple is what happens to subsidised phones in North America and to a lesser degree in Europe.

Canadian regulators are on the verge of forcing Telcos to eliminate contract break-up fees. If the big players are denied a lock on those fat 3 year data plans - you can bet subsidies will be far less generous making all smartphones more expensive upfront. And iOS devices would be among the most expensive.

So if price isn't an incentive - innovation is the only option.

AA

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[Kaykaykay]

Chitika: iPad web share falls after Christmas holiday | TUAW - The Unofficial Apple Weblog

 

[tlbaker]

Chitika: iPad web share falls after Christmas holiday | TUAW - The Unofficial Apple Weblog

How do you get the link to appear as text? I cut and paste mine and I get what's above lol.

Sent from my WiFi Black 64GB iPad with Retina Display in NYC using iPF

 

[AdmiralAdama]

How do you get the link to appear as text? I cut and paste mine and I get what's above lol.

Sent from my WiFi Black 64GB iPad with Retina Display in NYC using iPF

Try this.

http://insights.chitika.com/2013/2012-holiday-mobile-update/

AA

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[s2mikey]

If anything, I'd say the iPod touch is heading towards ''extinction''.

Why so? Just curious. Is it because more and people are getting phones? The touch is a pretty slick little unit, IMO.

 

[HardMetalAlchemy]

Why so? Just curious. Is it because more and people are getting phones? The touch is a pretty slick little unit, IMO.

I agree, the touch is a great product, but it is true that more people are getting the iPhone. If people were given a choice between the iPod touch and the iPad mini, more people would vote for the mini because of the bigger screen and similar price. Essentially, the mini is a big iPod touch and does pretty much everything the 5th generation touch does (Siri, FaceTime, messages, handling gaming).