Update: so here's an interesting (embarassing?) twist. I noticed last night that I had left the settings so that my iPad would autolock NEVER. I must have been reading something and never set it back. Out of curiosity I set it back to autolock after 2 min, and my iPad did not lose its charge over night.
It doesn't seem to me that that should make a big difference, since when I lock the iPad the screen goes dark and shouldn't be a drain on the battery. But perhaps I accidentally hit the lock button again, or pushed it against something that turned the screen back on (at full brightness) and left it on all night?
Sheesh.